Golf's Latest Betting Craze: Staking Big Money on Players NOT to Win
A particular type of golf betting is gaining popularity among high-stakes gamblers: wagering large sums on players to not win tournaments. These "no" bets typically require significant capital for relatively small returns but offer what some consider to be reliable profits.
For example, recent wagers at the Sentry tournament include:
- $9,325 on Collin Morikawa to not win (to earn $562)
- $9,573 on Sahith Theegala to not win (to earn $320)
- $9,474 on Ludvig Aberg to not win (to earn $417)
- $9,750 on Akshay Bhatia to not win (to earn $245)
- $9,800 on Robert MacIntyre to not win (to earn $196)
Professional gambler Rufus Peabody demonstrated both the potential and risks of this strategy. He lost $360,000 when Bryson DeChambeau won the U.S. Open at Pinehurst, on a bet that would have earned him $15,000. However, he later succeeded with a $330,000 bet against Tiger Woods at the British Open, earning $1,000.
These bets are typically found on betting exchanges rather than traditional sportsbooks like DraftKings or FanDuel. The strategy relies on:
- Large tournament fields (often 156 players)
- Statistical edges between offered odds and actual probabilities
- Golf-specific factors like weather and course conditions
For instance, a recent $9,791 bet on Matt Fitzpatrick to not win the Sentry would pay just $106.70. While the odds suggest a 98.92% chance of success, analytics site DataGolf calculates a 99.3% probability – creating a small but potentially profitable edge for the bettor.